Our Approach
Conifers represent longevity, environmental adaptability, and use disaster to gain an advantage. Many pinecones don’t open until they are in a fire. While the competition is burning, pinecones are spreading their seeds in the high winds, thus gaining significant territory. At PMR, we use this framework to create opportunities that yield long term wealth.
Nature is our greatest teacher.
-Lao Tzu
In markets, investors compete for resources using strategies just like plants and animals do in their environment. Pine trees have been around for 300 million years, yet angiosperms controlled 90% of the Earth about 50 million years ago. In order to compete, pine trees deployed an indirect strategy because they grow slower than angiosperms, especially early in their life. You have likely noticed a lot of conifers in rocky areas, mountains, and in harsh weather and soil. This is because they’ve adapted to grow where angiosperms cannot. Pines allow regular trees to take the easy and direct route to growth – the instant gratification path. Pines yield the present to angiosperms and keep an eye on their future growth. Today, conifers make up about 33% of the world’s forests.
We use this analogy as a framework for our investing style.
Pinecones spread their seeds in rocky, sandy, or acidic soil in harsh mountain terrain. PMR invests in assets like energy, agriculture, and timber.
Pines use pointy needles to keep away plant eating animals. We use stops and hedges.
Pines use a relationship with fungi to attain nutrients from rocky soil. PMR uses our network of brilliant thinkers to sharpen our views on complex subjects.
Pinecones only open when it is dry to ensure the seeds will not get stuck on wet surfaces, so they travel far. PMR only enters trades near inflection points to avoid getting stuck in value traps.
Macro — A broad term, defined
We focus on macro because it drives the world
At PMR we focus on macro for ideas and technicals for execution. We don’t solely focus on rates, FX, or monetary policy but rather look for opportunities in any investable asset. If we think corn is the place to be that is where you will find us. If we think being short T-Bond futures and long Brazilian Real is the best strategy – that is where we will allocate.
Our macro drivers include politics, cycles, history, geopolitics, positioning, technicals, sentiment, weather, psychology, and demographics. We scan global news, multimedia, research, and data every day to collect a multitude of dots. PMR connects these dots and turns them into thematic trade ideas that capitalize on mispriced markets. Dot connection is an emergent emulsifying of disparate dots into a singular thesis. Balance sheets are great, but they miss the biggest gears in the machine. We use a framework that incorporates all of this to try and best see the forest in the pinecone.
Our clients get a great aggregation of news, podcasts, videos, and charts every week. We work hard to provide a great signal to noise ratio in that aggregation. More importantly we present our unique perspectives on markets every week in The Cascade and go deep every month in The Emerald.
“Our products are priced to be accessible for working class folks early in their investing journey. My roots are rural, blue collar, and middle class and I started investing with less money than the average piggy bank. I want people like me who are hungry to learn about macro and want to build wealth to have access to my work. In 2023, PMR will roll out a new higher tier for our clients who desire higher levels of access to our research, but we aim to always have an accessible flagship product.”
—Chase, Founder